observe shape patterns
Horses will develop patterns of form throughout their racing careers that will be repeated year after year. They will have their favorite tracks where they win most of their races. On other tracks they run below their best form. The same goes for outward and distance rates.
Most punters are educated enough to take these factors into account, certainly the betting market reflects this.
A good example of this is horses that have a habit of winning first, second, or third after a spell. Many horses that win first don’t win second because the effort to win took its toll; this is sometimes described as the second syndrome.
Those horses with a good record in their second start of their campaign will normally finish without a place in the first half which is normally over a distance they have never won, but the second half with the benefit of the race and in a distance with is a furlong. or two more than the horse produces a winning effort.
Many horses will win at the same time of year, and on occasion, the same race they have won in the past. Weather and track conditions have a lot to do with it because those true winter gallops will have their training targeted when conditions are wetter.
That said, there is no guarantee of a dry track during the summer. This is the case in New Zealand and the UK, which have similar climates.
In New Zealand, some horses are considered “seasonal horses”, meaning they appear to win their races in the fall or spring. They do not support the harsh winter or the fast summer. In New Zealand these horses have the option of racing at Ruakaka during the winter as it provides the best winter in the country.
Trainers tend to target the same races every year with the same horses, so it’s not uncommon to see them compete in the same race every year. These types of horses are regular visitors to major gatherings, be it the Flemington Melbourne Cup meeting in Australia, the New Zealand Cup meeting in Christchurch in New Zealand, or the Cheltenham festival in the UK.
Keep an eye out for the change of season horses; these are horses that perform best in spring and fall. They find the summer tracks too hard and the winter tracks too wet, but they do better between the two extremes.